| t’s Uses In Risk Management | | | | concerned of the results from a short term general |
| Hedging, understanding the benefits for a risk | | | | market correction. Without the privilege of |
| management solution. | | | | foresight, he is unsure of the magnitude the earnings |
| The second of a two part article
. | | | | figures will produce. He now has an exposure to |
| Before I discuss the use of hedging to off-set risk, | | | | Market Risk. The manager thinks of his options. The |
| we need to understand the role and the purpose of | | | | greatest risk is to do nothing, if the market falls as |
| hedging. The history of modern futures trading | | | | expected, he risks giving up all recent gains. If he |
| begins in Chicago in the early 1800’s. Chicago is | | | | sells his portfolio early, he also risks being wrong and |
| located at the base of the Great Lakes, close to the | | | | missing further rally’s. Selling also incurs |
| farmlands and cattle country of the U.S. Midwest | | | | substantial brokerage fees with additional fees to buy |
| making it a natural center for transportation, | | | | back again later. |
| distribution and trading of agricultural produce. Gluts | | | | Then he realizes a hedge is the best option to |
| and shortages of these products caused chaotic | | | | mitigate his short term risk. He begins by calling his |
| fluctuations in price. This led to the development of a | | | | CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and after |
| market enabling grain merchants, processors, and | | | | consultation places an order to sell short the |
| agriculture companies to trade in contracts to insulate | | | | equivalent of $10 million of the S&P 500 index on the |
| them from the risk of adverse price change and | | | | Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME. Now his |
| enable them to hedge. | | | | result is when the market falls as expected, he will |
| The first commodity exchange was the creation of | | | | off-set any losses in the portfolio with gains from the |
| the Chicago Board of Trade, CBOT in 1848. Since | | | | Index hedge. Should the earnings report be better |
| then, modern derivative products have grown to | | | | than expected, and his portfolio continues upward, he |
| include more than the agricultural industry. Products | | | | will continue making profits. |
| include Stock Indices, Interest Rates, Currency, | | | | Two weeks later the fund manager calls his CTA and |
| Precious Metals, Oil and Gas, Steel and a host of | | | | closes the hedge by buying back the equivalent |
| others. The origins of the commodity and futures | | | | number of contracts on the CME. Regardless of the |
| exchange was created to support hedging. The | | | | resulting market events, the mutual fund manager |
| role of speculators is beneficial as they add trading | | | | was protected during the period of short term |
| volume and important volatility to what would | | | | volatility. There was no risk to the portfolio. |
| otherwise be a small and illiquid market place. You | | | | Example 2: An electronics firm ABC has recently |
| can view a complete listing of the worlds different | | | | signed an order to deliver $5 million in electronic |
| exchanges at: | | | | components of next years model to an overseas |
| A bona-fide hedger is someone with an actual | | | | retailer located in Europe. These components will be |
| product to buy or sell. The hedger establishes an | | | | built in 6 months for delivery two months after |
| off-setting position on the futures or commodity | | | | that. ABC instantly realizes they are exposed to |
| exchange, thereby instituting a set price for his | | | | two risks. 1. the rising and volatile price of copper in |
| product. Someone buying a hedge is known as | | | | 6 months may result in losses to the firm. 2. |
| being Long or Taking Delivery. | | | | the fluctuation in the currency could easily add to |
| Someone selling a hedge is known as being | | | | those losses. ABC being a young firm cannot |
| Short or Making Delivery. These | | | | absorb these losses in view of the highly competitive |
| positions known as Contracts are legally | | | | market from others in the field. Losses from this |
| binding and enforced by the exchange. | | | | order would result in lay-offs and possibly plant |
| Entering your trades either for speculation or hedging | | | | closures. |
| is done through your broker. Commodity Trading | | | | ABC telephones their CTA and after consultation |
| Advisor, Genuine Trading Solutions President Dwayne | | | | places an order for two hedges, both for an expiry in |
| Strocen, states that Commodity and Futures | | | | 8 months, the date of delivery. Hedge #1 is to buy |
| exchanges are distinct from Stock Exchanges, | | | | long $5 million of copper effectively locking in |
| although they operate using the same principals. | | | | today’s price against further price increases. |
| They are regulated by different agencies such as the | | | | ABC has now eliminated all price risk. The risk of |
| Commodity Futures Trading Commission who are | | | | plant closures is greater than the lure of increased |
| responsible for regulation of retail brokers in the USA | | | | profit should copper price fall. After all, ABC is not in |
| as well as Commodity Trading Advisors such as | | | | the business of speculating on copper prices. |
| us. | | | | Hedge #2 is to sell short the equivalent of Euro |
| Now let’s view some real life examples of | | | | Currency vs US Dollars. Since ABC is effectively |
| hedging or mitigation of risk by using exchange | | | | accepting EC in payment, a rising US dollar and a |
| traded derivatives. | | | | weak EC would be detrimental and erode profits |
| Example 1: A mutual fund manager has a portfolio | | | | further. The result of the hedge is no risk and no |
| valued at $10 million closely resembling the S&P 500 | | | | surprises to ABC in either copper or currency levels. |
| index. The Portfolio Manager believes the economy | | | | A risk free transaction and full transparency is the |
| is worsening with deteriorating corporate returns. | | | | result. In 8 months with the order completed and the |
| The next two to three weeks are reports of | | | | customer accepting delivery, ABC notifies the CTA |
| quarterly corporate earnings. Until the report | | | | to close the hedge by selling the copper and buying |
| exposes which companies have poor earnings, he is | | | | back the Euro Currency contacts. |