Entropy and Risk Management

In this article, I shall be dealing with the topic -entropy of the systems. Selective information
Project Risk Management and demonstrate how oneprocessing and the indices available from the existing
could find mathematical equivalents for an abstractproject management literature is no longer adequate.
methodology. Any project, large or small is associatedI'll provide my standard IT example here. IT projects
with expected and unexpected problems. Theare technically much more demanding than the
analogy mentioned above could be derived from theprojects from the classical industry standard projects.
Second Law of Thermodynamics. The Second law ofWe are talking about professional project
thermodynamics deals with a concept : Entropy.management efforts in a very highly complicated and
Entropy, in short, is the amount of disorderliness ofabstract technology, which has several abstract
the system. Entropy is also a measure on theinterfaces that could take any form depending upon
information contained in an system. In informationthe sub set of parameters that influence the
technology, entropy is considered as the amount ofoutcome at any particular moment. Thus, studying
uncertainty in an given system. This has a definedentropy of such systems and observing the behavior
relation, "As the amount of information increases, theto fit any standard distribution would help you close
disorderliness of a system (entropy) decreases".the gap between the existing high level of
Considering our project management scenario as aabstraction and the level of information to properly
system, one could come up with a model system,direct the project effort.
comprising of micro and macro phases, each having aCompliance is another project in IT projects, if not
certain amount of entropy. Considering thefor no other reason, than the trotting status of IT
information to be inversely proportional to theprojects. Technology has traditionally kept building
entropy (okay, almost inversely!), means to increaseitself over the existing infrastructure, but IT projects
the information, through careful planninghave proven to refute this standard behavior. Thus,
communication and monitoring the project progresscompliance to the proven methodologies may need
would increase the information available to a projectnecessarily not prove a good project standing. An IT
manager. This way, the entropy decreases. Asproject may fall short of the expectations a day
uncertainty is proportional to risk, decreasing thebefore going live. The kind of data available and its
entropy or increasing the information available, oneconsumption as well as decision making also has a
could decrease surprises.definitive complexity, which multiplies the project risk.
Projects typically follow a certain distribution, which isAdd to it, the fact that the computer programs have
unique to the project as the project itself. This lendsa life cycle of their own and that these programs
well to modeling the project using one of the several"evolve" with time, its almost next to impossible to
proven mathematical models of Information theoryassign one particular behavior to IT projects.
and study the progress to follow the distribution. IfAdditionally, the project team working on the
the project exhibits a pattern, then using theprogram development may or may not outlive the
statistics, one could directly plug the values such assoftware life time. There is a "human factor" to
cost/schedule variances and/or other indites tothese projects, which is not time proven. We do not
monitor, track and optimistically, predict the projecthave the "legacy" as with other application areas.
behavior.Segmenting the project into micro and macro states,
The situation is much more complicated than thestudying the individual parts and gathering the
classical project management from the technologicalparameters of these and analyzing their fit in the
advancements, which are both a boon and a bane."whole" such as a fine grained approach, without
With the Internet and Networking technology, thelosing the information from the "coarse grained"
amount of information available has exponentiallyparadigm would complement each other in projects
increased over the years, thereby increasing theof complexity as those mentioned above.