| > | | | | sometimes even more difficult to resolve. |
| Projects typically involve many dynamic aspects, yet | | | | -- Our often-idealistic views of our own capabilities. |
| they're often constrained by finite conditions. These | | | | We frequently believe that we can achieve much |
| contradictory forces make it very difficult to | | | | more than is possible in the available time. |
| determine with pinpoint accuracy the time and effort | | | | -- A strong human desire to please other people by |
| required. By using a set of proactive estimating | | | | telling them what they want to hear. (After all, who |
| techniques to scope, plan, and constrain your project | | | | wants to be the bearer of bad news?) |
| conditions, you can dramatically improve your | | | | 12 Tips for Increasing Estimating Accuracy |
| estimating practices, reduce and mitigate risks, and | | | | To remedy these shortcomings, below are 12 ideas |
| increase your project success rate. | | | | for boosting the accuracy of your estimates: |
| Do you excel at predicting the time, funding, and | | | | 1. Maintain an ongoing "actual hours" database of the |
| resources your projects will require? | | | | recorded time spent on each aspect of your |
| Whether your company aims to develop a new | | | | projects. Use the data to help estimate future |
| product or service, update an existing system, or | | | | projects and identify the historically accurate buffer |
| launch a new Web site, these undertakings will | | | | time needed to realistically perform the work. |
| require people, schedules, funding, resources, | | | | 2. Create and use planning documents, such as |
| requirements, testing, revising, implementation, | | | | specifications and project plans. |
| evaluation, and many other elements. | | | | 3. Perform a detailed task analysis of the work to be |
| You may have seen this phenomenon already: | | | | performed. |
| projects are risk magnets. Why is that? | | | | 4. Use a "complexity factor" as a multiplier to |
| The possible reasons include the fact that projects | | | | determine whether a pending project is more or less |
| typically involve many dynamic aspects, yet they're | | | | complex than a previous one. |
| often constrained by finite conditions. These opposing | | | | 5. Use more than one method to arrive at an |
| forces make it very challenging to identify with great | | | | estimate, and look for a midpoint among all of them. |
| accuracy the time and effort required, and can result | | | | 6. Identify a set of caveats, constraints, and |
| in many budget and schedule "collisions" during the life | | | | assumptions to accompany your calculations, which |
| of the project. | | | | would bound the conditions under which your |
| When my clients or colleagues invariably ask, "How | | | | estimates would be meaningful. (Anything that occurs |
| long do you think this effort might take?" I usually | | | | outside of those constraints would be considered out |
| experience a knee-jerk reaction. Instinctively, a part | | | | of scope.) |
| of my brain that once excelled at solving math | | | | 7. If the proposed budget or schedule seems |
| problems on timed quizzes goes into overdrive. "I | | | | inadequate to do the work, propose adjusting |
| know the answer!" it screams. | | | | upward or downward one or more of the four |
| Yet, unless that project or task is something I've | | | | project scoping criteria: Cost, schedule, quality, and |
| performed many times before -- under very similar | | | | features. |
| conditions each time, and with good records of my | | | | 8. Consider simpler or more efficient ways to |
| actual hours spent -- providing an accurate estimate | | | | organize and perform the work. |
| can be quite elusive. As I strive to imagine all of the | | | | 9. Plan and estimate the project rollout from the very |
| stages and steps of a process, as well as fathom the | | | | beginning so that the rollout won't become a chaotic |
| unknown variables or things that could go awry, it's | | | | scramble at the end. For instance, you could propose |
| no wonder that I hardly ever guess 100% correctly, | | | | using a minimally disruptive approach, such as a pilot |
| particularly for new endeavors. | | | | program or a phased implementation. |
| Estimating Techniques Can Help Manage Risks | | | | 10. In really nebulous situations, consider a |
| Did you know that estimating is an invaluable tool for | | | | phase-based approach, where the first phase focuses |
| anticipating and managing these project uncertainties? | | | | primarily on requirements gathering and estimating. |
| When we can identify our cost and schedule | | | | 11. Develop contingency plans by prioritizing the |
| requirements with relative precision, it reduces the | | | | deliverables right from the start into "must-have" and |
| risk of running out of time, resources, and budget | | | | "nice-to-have" categories. |
| during a project. | | | | 12. Refer to your lessons-learned database for "20:20 |
| Yet with all of the emphasis we place on creating | | | | foresight" on new projects, and incorporate your |
| accurate estimates and bids, we still seem to have | | | | best practices into future estimates. |
| difficulty developing realistic predictions of our time | | | | In conclusion, by using a set of proactive estimating |
| and effort. If we look carefully at the evidence, I | | | | techniques to scope, plan, and constrain your project |
| believe we'll find three basic, underlying clues to the | | | | conditions, you can dramatically improve your |
| reasons for our challenges with estimating: | | | | estimating practices, reduce and mitigate risks, and |
| -- The presence of hidden or unknown variables that | | | | greatly increase your project success rate! |
| are difficult or impossible to anticipate, and | | | | |