Probability And Investment!

If I want to be good as an investor, then I need tohead or tail upon landing.
be good at arithmetic to analyze the odds of anIf I invest $100 in each trade, then I can make at
investment. Also, I need to be able to read and write.least 100 trades. That is the number of times that
There is where scholastic education plays anthe share prices will go up in a 100 trades is near 33.
important role. Scholastic education teaches me howThis is like throwing a coin a hundred times and the
to read, write and do arithmetic. It is one of thenumber of times that I will get a head in a 100
three vital educations as highlighted by the Rich Dad'sthrows is near to 50.
series by Robert Kiyosaki. The other two vitalA professional trader understands the fact that
educations are professional education and financialprobability is only true if there are a sufficient large
education.number of trades. Thus, he only risks a small amount
How does arithmetic play a part in investment? Toof this capital in each trade.
answer this question, I need to explain a little on theAnother way to apply this probability is to limit the
probability using the example of a coin.loss of each trade to $100. That is, I can invest all
What happen when I throw a coin and let it landsmy capital in the share of a single company. If the
onto the table? It is obvious that the coin is eithershare price goes down and my loss hit $100, I will sell
going to show head or tail. What if I throw 2 times,off my position and exit the stock market. Of course
what are the chances of the coin showing head?if the share price drops too suddenly, I will end up
I cannot really be sure what are the chances. I maylosing much more money than I am willing to loss.
get 2 heads in a row. I may get 1 head and 1 tail. IThus, this approach is not that advisable.
may get 2 tails.In addition, the professional trader makes use of
What if I throw a 100 times? How many times is thetechnical analysis to increase the odds of winning. He
coin showing head? I will find that the number will beanalyses the chart for indication of to buy and sell.
somewhere near 50. In other words, I will find thatAlso, he uses a few other techniques to increase his
there is a 50 percent chance of getting a head if thechance of winning. All these are included as part of
number of throws is large enough. The probability ofhis investment plan.
getting a head is the chances of the coin showingThe above description is based on my understanding
head out of a large number of throws. That is theby reading a book. I have gathered from the Rich
probability of getting a head is 0.5.Dad series by Robert Kiyosaki that investment plan is
Similarly, if I have thrown a six-sided dice, thedifferent for each individual. If I read more books, I
probability of getting a six in a 100 throws is about 1will definitely find more approaches and methods for
6. But I can do something to increase my odds oftrading. Different professional traders have different
getting a six. I can use a modified six-sided dice thatinvestment plans and thus they will do things
has a higher probability of showing a six compared todifferently.
a normal six-sided dice. In this way, the probability of* DISCLAIMER *
getting a six is increased.The author only provides the material and information
And this is what a professional investor does toas a layperson's views about an important subject.
make money from an investment. He increases theThe materials and information are from sources
probability of winning by identifying and managing thebelieved to be reliable and from his own personal
risks involved. He does not invest for the sake ofexperience, but he neither implies nor intends any
investment. He has a plan for investment thatguarantee of accuracy.
includes risk management. Yes, investment is a planAll the materials, information and procedure in this
based on what I have understood from the Richbook are only the author's personal opinion. You must
Dad's series by Robert Kiyosaki.consult your own professional advisor and other
A good example will be looking at how a professionalreputable sources on any matter that concerns you
trader makes use of probability to his advantage.or others.
In a stock market, the price of a share can go up,The author, publishers and distributors are not
go down or remain the same. That is the probabilitycompetent and do not profess to give legal,
of the share price going up is 1/3. Remember, theaccounting, medical or any other type of professional
probability only holds if there is a sufficient largeadvice. The reader must always seek those services
amount of trades. Like in the case of throwing a coin,from competent professionals who can review your
the probability of 0.5 is true only if there is a largeown particular circumstances.
number of throws.The author, publisher and distributors particularly
Let imagine that I have an initial capital of $10,000 todisclaim any liability, loss, or risk taken by individuals
invest in shares. If I invest $10,000 in a single trade,who directly or indirectly act on the information
what is the probability of the share price going up?contained herein. All readers must accept full
There is no way to predict or tell. This is like throwingresponsibility for their use of this material.
a coin once and try to guess whether it will show