| Take any random pair of people and the
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| | probability of having a pair born on the
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| probability of them having the exact same
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| | same date.
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| birthday sits at (1/365)?0.0027 or
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| | As shown, it takes only 23 unique people
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| roughly 0.27%. The chance of it seems so
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| | or events for something formally
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| low that many would ignore and assume it
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| | considered "highly unlikely" to
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| never occurring.
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| | transpire. This suggests that business
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| The Birthday Paradox however makes
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| | operators could adopt a more meticulous
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| available mathematical means to display
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| | and mathematical approach to risk
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| that the "improbable" occurs quite more
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| | management.
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| often than general belief. How many
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| | Killer storms or typhoons come on the
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| people does it take to have over 50%
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| | ocean infrequently. Yet, shipbuilders
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| chance of a pair sharing the same
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| | make certain to construct and design the
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| birthday?
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| | vessels to endure the worst of
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| 23
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| | conditions. When it comes down to life or
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| Explanation, please keep in mind this
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| | death, survival relies on weathering the
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| example ignores leap years.
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| | rare catastrophes.
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| 1) With 23 people 253 possible pairs
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| | Does your business model include
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| exist.
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| | contingency plans for short term negative
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| 23*22/2=253
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| | outcomes or if competitors employ
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| (Look up Permutations if you don't
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| | unforeseen strategies? The investors of
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| understand this)
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| | bankrupt New Zealand financing companies
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| 2) Now instead of finding the chance of
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| | had to learn this the hard way, with some
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| two people having the same birthday, let
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| | losing a lifetime of savings. I often
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| us find the probability of them having
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| | hear the phrase "take calculated risks",
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| DIFFERENT birthdays.
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| | yet not many people understand the
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| 1-1/365?0.9973 or 99.73% or 364/365 in
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| | calculation part. It certainly does not
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| fraction
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| | equate to guessing and hoping for the
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| 3) Plugging in the number of possible
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| | best.
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| pairs.
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| | I plan to discuss risk management in the
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| (364/365)^253?0.4995 or 49.95% chance of
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| | near future. In the mean time, free
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| having every possible pair within the
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| | resources are available everywhere at the
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| group to have DIFFERENT birthdays.
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| | library or over the internet. Learn to
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| 4) Therefore, this concludes that out of
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| | survive the worst of times, and
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| a group of 23 people, there exists 50.05%
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| | everything will turn out A O K.
|
